My Top 15 Diplomatic Ties
In my posting the other day, I talked about the US-China relationship as the most important bilateral tie in the world today and it got me thinking – what are the others? So here, for better or worse, richer or poorer, I’ve tried to pluck out of thin air a top fifteen. (I couldn’t decide on ten). It will probably turn out to be one of my dafter ideas but never mind – suggestions and omissions welcome!
THE TOP FIFTEEN BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS
1. Washington-Beijing
Doh! This one is the easiest and most obvious – it’s the superpower fall out of the next half-century at least. Both the US and China are now economically interdependent but both countries share different visions of world order. The US has traditionally been seen as a world policeman v China’s more ’sovereignty’ conscious vision.
2. Washington-Tel Aviv
The Israel-Palestine conflict has been the defining clash of the past fifty years. Israel relies heavily on US support both on the diplomatic stage and for defence technology. We saw recently what happened when President Obama tried to distance himself over settlements. There are few countries which can make a superpower cave in – Israel just did thanks to the diaspora.
3. Paris-Berlin
This is the relationship that has defined post-War Europe the most and gave birth to what is now known as the European Union. And we saw this week, the strength of this relationship – the French and Germans chose a relatively unknown Belgian to be the EU Council’s first president – assuring this pair are at the fore of the EU for years to come. If Europe is to act as a major pillar in world diplomacy in this century, this is the relationship that will drive it.
4. Washington-Islamabad
There is a war on you know! This relationship, I think, is far more crucial than the ones between the US and Kabul and Baghdad respectively. Two reasons – Pakistan has turned out to be something of a powder keg over the past decade and she has her fingers in many pies – namely India and Afghanistan. The security of nuclear material in this country is also a key concern.
5. Washington-Tokyo
This is a relationship under strain. Japan and the US go back to the end of the Second World War when today’s Japan was pretty much established under American tutelage. It has been a key base for American soldiers and is close to several of Asia’s hotspots and is an important presence on the other side of the Pacific. Japan is also the US’s largest trading partner and has a new less pro-American PM.
6. Beijing-Tokyo
Japan in the 1980’s seemed unstoppable. It’s economy was booming. But it has always felt in a straight jacket on the world stage following its World War II legacy. Now the jacket is loosening, Japan is moving up and with American support and perhaps a tie in with India can help ensure that China’s rise is peaceful and perhaps even keep it down. Beijing on the other hand will be keen to prevent that happening.
7. Washington-Moscow
Remember the Cold War? The Moscow-Washington relationship is the one that dominated the second half of the 20th Century and remains important. Russia has proved only recently in Georgia that it will still assert itself where necessary. The whole Putin Medvedev double act has also left many questioning who exactly is in charge and where exactly Russia is going – and in diplomacy mixed messages are bad news.
8. Washington-London
If you’d received a pound for every time you’d heard this link called the special relationship, you’d be rich indeed but times are waning. Increasing President Sarkozy or Chancellor Merkel receives the call. But when the chips are down, the UK still rallies to the side of its ally. The Iraq War and Afghan conflict are two cases in point. Traditionally, an important voice for the US in Europe too. Hillary Clinton and David Miliband seem to be getting on fine too!
9. Ankara-Tel Aviv
This is an important relationship, which has undergone quite some turmoil recently. Turkey has been increasingly outspoken on the issue of Israel’s War in Gaza last year. Turkey vetoed Israel’s participation in major military exercises with the US. Turkey however is a lifeline for Israel to the Arab speaking world – Turkey is a powerful voice both in the region (because of the size of its economy and military) and further afield in Europe as it is a secular Muslim state.
10. Washington-Brussels (EU)
As the world’s largest trading bloc, the USA can’t afford to ignore the EU. Perhaps, this one should be higher up the list, but in security terms it’s already a pretty strong alliance with a huge overlap between EU and NATO membership.
11. Washington-Berne
Switzerland? Yes, Switzerland. Do American’s have a pressing need for Milka chocolate and cow bells? No – but in Cuba and Iran where the US does not have representation of its own, it relies on the Swiss to act as intermediaries. Given where we are currently with the US wanting to improve links with Havana and up the diplomatic ante with Iran for the duration of the Obama Presidency at least, it’s important both countries are on message.
12. Tokyo- New Delhi
The Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, has described this as one of his country’s most important links and with good reason. China’s rise not only threatens Japan but also India’s ambitions. Together though the pair can outplay China if they act together. Watch these countries deepen their links over the next twenty to thirty years.
13. New Delhi-Islamabad
To each other they are the respective ‘neighbours from hell’. This is one of the major fault-lines in world politics and the state of the relationship has severe implications for regional stability. Pakistan seeks to undermine India wherever possible and the ISI has used Islamist groups to help achieve its aim in Kashmir before.
14. Washington-Kabul
This I think is one of the hardest relationships to place. With thousands of US armed forces in action in Afghanistan, it is clearly important to the US that the situation in Afghanistan improves. It is also important that Al Qaeda terror-training camps disappear – but long term, this is not a strategically important country like the others on the list. Perhaps it should be higher, I’m not sure.
15. Washington-New Delhi
President George W Bush pushed this relationship up the list. It’s crept in for two reasons. First, as I mentioned earlier, America’s improving relations with India help slow down the rise of China. It’s also a way to send a strong message to Islamabad – I think it’s fair to say the transfer of advanced nuclear technology to Delhi under Bush didn’t please the Pakistanis!
I’m sure I’ve made some clanging omissions. Seoul and Pyongyang came under consideration, as did Washington’s ties with Brasilia and Mexico City. The Latin American tie ins are often forgotten but important because of immigration and drugs trafficking and Brazil’s rising status as one of the world’s fast advancing economies that is also democratic.
Who have I forgotten/missed out? Do you think the list overplays the significance of China? Do you think Britain’s relationship with the US should be as high?
