http://www.newyorker.com/online/multimedia/2009/12/07/091207_audioslideshow_platon – The good and the great of World Politics, as seen in the New Yorker.

Brazil – the future is now…

Photo from stock.xchng by joseas

Brazilians themselves often call it the ‘county of the future’. But increasingly, I think 2009 will be remembered as the year Brazil came of age. In several key diplomatic disputes this year, Brazil has been leading the way for South America. The US government has also been very visible in its relations with South America’s largest economy.

These are just some of the issues Brazil has been tackling on the world stage this year:

1. G-20 Summits.
2. Climate Change talks
3. Middle East peace – Israel and the Palestinians.
4. Iran
5. The crisis in Honduras
6. US Military bases in Colombia.

President Obama fondly called President Lula, ‘the most popular politician on earth’ back in April at the G-20. That followed Lula’s outspoken comments on the global financial crisis.

“This was a crisis that was fostered and boosted by the irrational behaviour of people who were white and blue-eyed, who before the crisis they looked like they knew everything about economics, but now have demonstrated they know nothing about economics,” President Lula.

President Lula was outspoken once more yesterday saying that ‘gringos’ should pay Amazon nations to prevent deforestation as the Amazon was a large part of the Brazilian economy and sustained 30 million lives. And let’s face it, he’s saying what many people in the Southern hemisphere are thinking.

The importance of relations between Washington and Brasilia were again highlighted by Wednesday’s revelations in the Brazilian media of a letter from Obama to Lula.

Some say it’s evidence of a rift between the two countries over the state visit of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran last week.

However, I agree with Celso Amorim’s (the Foreign Ministers) take on this. He says it’s not a rift but part of a dialogue with the Obama Administration. We all know Obama has been lampooned for having too much dialogue.

In a peculiar way, it seems like Southern Hemispheric relations have been tendered out to the ‘Itamaraty’ – the Foreign Ministry in Brasilia.

Anyone who has visited Brazil can testify it often seems chaotic – however, the Foreign Ministry has a reputation for excellence around the world and I think Obama is keen to exploit that reputation and use Brazil as a back channel into many of the issues mentioned about above – Israel and Iran clearly very sensitive ones for the US where a friendly country can provide a helpful ear.

I’ve also asked myself whether there’s an aspect of Brazil being rewarded for not shouting too loudly about the military bases the US wants to establish in Colombia which are causing much disquiet across the continent. It’s true Brazil has spoken out but it could have made much more fuss about it than it has.

Eric Farnsworth, a former Clinton official, quoted in the LA Times believes that the Ahmadinejad’s visit coupled with claims by Brazil that Obama ignored Latin America and also Lula’s backing for Hugo Chavez may have thrown cold water on Obama’s plan to use Lula as a proxy in Latin America.

Whatever is happening – it’s clear Brazil is moving to the next level on the diplomatic stage, one where it’s actions and profile will be endlessly analysed.

Should Brazil be a proxy for the US? Is President Lula right to speak his mind? Should he have allowed Ahmadinejad to visit?

Damascus-Tehran is one of the diplomatic ties that should have made it into the Top 15 which I forgot. The role that Tehran has started to play in regional affairs has increased and increased over the past twenty years. I’m sure more will come to me in the future!

My Top 15 Diplomatic Ties

In my posting the other day, I talked about the US-China relationship as the most important bilateral tie in the world today and it got me thinking – what are the others? So here, for better or worse, richer or poorer, I’ve tried to pluck out of thin air a top fifteen. (I couldn’t decide on ten). It will probably turn out to be one of my dafter ideas but never mind – suggestions and omissions welcome!

THE TOP FIFTEEN BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS

1. Washington-Beijing

Doh! This one is the easiest and most obvious – it’s the superpower fall out of the next half-century at least. Both the US and China are now economically interdependent but both countries share different visions of world order. The US has traditionally been seen as a world policeman v China’s more ‘sovereignty’ conscious vision.

2. Washington-Tel Aviv

The Israel-Palestine conflict has been the defining clash of the past fifty years. Israel relies heavily on US support both on the diplomatic stage and for defence technology. We saw recently what happened when President Obama tried to distance himself over settlements. There are few countries which can make a superpower cave in – Israel just did thanks to the diaspora.

3. Paris-Berlin

This is the relationship that has defined post-War Europe the most and gave birth to what is now known as the European Union. And we saw this week, the strength of this relationship – the French and Germans chose a relatively unknown Belgian to be the EU Council’s first president – assuring this pair are at the fore of the EU for years to come. If Europe is to act as a major pillar in world diplomacy in this century, this is the relationship that will drive it.

4. Washington-Islamabad

There is a war on you know! This relationship, I think, is far more crucial than the ones between the US and Kabul and Baghdad respectively. Two reasons – Pakistan has turned out to be something of a powder keg over the past decade and she has her fingers in many pies – namely India and Afghanistan. The security of nuclear material in this country is also a key concern.

5. Washington-Tokyo

This is a relationship under strain. Japan and the US go back to the end of the Second World War when today’s Japan was pretty much established under American tutelage. It has been a key base for American soldiers and is close to several of Asia’s hotspots and is an important presence on the other side of the Pacific. Japan is also the US’s largest trading partner and has a new less pro-American PM.

6. Beijing-Tokyo

Japan in the 1980′s seemed unstoppable.  It’s economy was booming. But it has always felt in a straight jacket on the world stage following its World War II legacy. Now the jacket is loosening, Japan is moving up and with American support and perhaps a tie in with India can help ensure that China’s rise is peaceful and perhaps even keep it down. Beijing on the other hand will be keen to prevent that happening.

7. Washington-Moscow

Remember the Cold War? The Moscow-Washington relationship is the one that dominated the second half of the 20th Century and remains important. Russia has proved only recently in Georgia that it will still assert itself where necessary. The whole Putin Medvedev double act has also left many questioning who exactly is in charge and where exactly Russia is going – and in diplomacy mixed messages are bad news.

8. Washington-London

If you’d received a pound for every time you’d heard this link called the special relationship, you’d be rich indeed but times are waning. Increasing President Sarkozy or Chancellor Merkel receives the call. But when the chips are down, the UK still rallies to the side of its ally. The Iraq War and Afghan conflict are two cases in point. Traditionally, an important voice for the US in Europe too. Hillary Clinton and David Miliband seem to be getting on fine too!

9. Ankara-Tel Aviv

This is an important relationship, which has undergone quite some turmoil recently. Turkey has been increasingly outspoken on the issue of Israel’s War in Gaza last year. Turkey vetoed Israel’s participation in major military exercises with the US. Turkey however is a lifeline for Israel to the Arab speaking world – Turkey is a powerful voice both in the region (because of the size of its economy and military) and further afield in Europe as it is a secular Muslim state.

10. Washington-Brussels (EU)

As the world’s largest trading bloc, the USA can’t afford to ignore the EU. Perhaps, this one should be higher up the list, but in security terms it’s already a pretty strong alliance with a huge overlap between EU and NATO membership.

11. Washington-Berne

Switzerland? Yes, Switzerland. Do American’s have a pressing need for Milka chocolate and cow bells? No – but in Cuba and Iran where the US does not have representation of its own, it relies on the Swiss to act as intermediaries. Given where we are currently with the US wanting to improve links with Havana and up the diplomatic ante with Iran for the duration of the Obama Presidency at least, it’s important both countries are on message.

12. Tokyo- New Delhi

The Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, has described this as one of his country’s most important links and with good reason. China’s rise not only threatens Japan but also India’s ambitions. Together though the pair can outplay China if they act together. Watch these countries deepen their links over the next twenty to thirty years.

13. New Delhi-Islamabad

To each other they are the respective ‘neighbours from hell’. This is one of the major fault-lines in world politics and the state of the relationship has severe implications for regional stability. Pakistan seeks to undermine India wherever possible and the ISI has used Islamist groups to help achieve its aim in Kashmir before.

14. Washington-Kabul

This I think is one of the hardest relationships to place. With thousands of US armed forces in action in Afghanistan, it is clearly important to the US that the situation in Afghanistan improves. It is also important that Al Qaeda terror-training camps disappear – but long term, this is not a strategically important country like the others on the list. Perhaps it should be higher, I’m not sure.

15. Washington-New Delhi

President George W Bush pushed this relationship up the list. It’s crept in for two reasons. First, as I mentioned earlier, America’s improving relations with India help slow down the rise of China. It’s also a way to send a strong message to Islamabad – I think it’s fair to say the transfer of advanced nuclear technology to Delhi under Bush didn’t please the Pakistanis!

I’m sure I’ve made some clanging omissions. Seoul and Pyongyang came under consideration, as did Washington’s ties with Brasilia and Mexico City. The Latin American tie ins are often forgotten but important because of immigration and drugs trafficking and Brazil’s rising status as one of the world’s fast advancing economies that is also democratic.

Who have I forgotten/missed out? Do you think the list overplays the significance of China? Do you think Britain’s relationship with the US should be as high?

Obamarama in Asia

This week’s trip by Barack Obama to Asia was quite a guided tour, taking in Tokyo, Singapore, The Forbidden City, The Great Wall of China and Seoul. And according to the AP – yes, he’s beaten a record. The most travelled first year president, visiting some 16 countries – perhaps that’s why/because (*delete where applicable) his poll rating’s have slipped back home!

JAPAN

Tokyo was clearly an important first stop. Yukio Hatoyama is the new Japanese PM. He is a different political colour to his predecessor Taro Aso. The first non Liberal Democratic Party leader for some considerable time.

There were two main reasons this was an important stop. First, Mr Hatoyama is less pro-American than his predecessors and this is one of the most strategically important bilateral relations in American Foreign Policy. Thousands of US Army and Navy personnel are located in Southern Japan.

In the 1980s Washington’s Ambassador in Tokyo described the relationship as the ‘world’s most important bilateral relationship’. This week – that honour moved to China.

The Tokyo stopover though was also chance to court the leader of China’s only real regional challenger. In spite of flourishing rhetoric in Beijing, it’s important that China’s rise is controlled and President Obama will hope Japan can help act as a counter weight.

SINGAPORE

Given the times we live in – it must have been quite a moment for the leaders of the East Asian tigers in Singapore. Listening to the man whose banks helped start the world’s first truly global financial crisis; it must have been quite a relief from the lectures of the US to APEC members when the dot.com bubble burst.

It was also a chance for President Obama to sit down at a table with the leader of the ruling military junta of Burma, Than Shwe.

SHANGHAI & BEIJING

Let’s face it – the US has only one major rival – and it is China. Whether China’s rise is peaceful is one thing but the economic consequences are undeniable. China still has a long way to go until it matches the US weight, power and influence but they are already calling this relationship – the Group of 2.

China has invested heavily in US bonds and therefore wants the American economy to rally as much as the Obama government. The Americans complain that the Yuan is unfairly pegged to the dollar and is devalued and there are worries about inflation or a drop in the value of the dollar.

Human rights did appear, including a message about the Great Firewall of China. But if Tibetan’s hoped for more enlightenment from the 44th President, they will have been disappointed. Whilst President Obama acknowledged the need for dialogue, he clearly said he saw Tibet as being part of the Chinese People’s Republic.

In a room somewhere in Beijing – Green campaigners waved goodbye to the critical agreement needed to make next month’s Copenhagen climate summit worthwhile. Washington’s Ambassador to Beijing insisting though that progress was made on using clean ‘energy’.

THE KOREAN PENINSULA

King Jong-Il managed to keep his missiles down this week – no antics on the Korean Peninsula as the cavalcade came to town in Seoul.

Once more trade was the issue here – President Lee Myung-Bak keen to make progress on a free-trade agreement and also shore up relations in the light of the increased threat posed by Pyongyang.

More is likely in the month ahead, when envoy Stephen Bosworth travels to Pyongyang. It’s conjecture but possibly something Bill Clinton laid the groundwork for when he visited the DPRK to rescue two imprisoned American Journalists earlier this year.

And as for the picture opportunity of the trip – you might think it was the Great Wall… but for me it has to be the picture of the world’s most powerful man, bowing deeply in the presence of Emperor Akhitio and his wife. I still can’t believe that such a gesture provoked such outrage back in the US.

So was it a successful trip in your opinion? Was Obama outspoken enough on human rights in China? Is America’s economy likely to recover quicker as a result of the trip? What’s the deal with the bow?